Arctic challenges - the fine art of dealing with change

Minister of Defence Anne-Grete Strøm-Erichsen

Conference: Security in 21st Century Artic,
Tromsø, 25 September 2007

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Ladies and gentlemen, dear friends of the High North!

It is a great pleasure for me to take part in this conference on ”Security in the 21st century Arctic” here in Tromsø. With so many knowledgeable contributors and such a distinguished audience, I am confident that we all will leave here with a better understanding of what is happening in the area we like to refer to as the top of the world. And I hope that you will agree with me - and the Norwegian government - that the top of the world deserves to be where we have placed it: at the top of the political agenda. My Government has, as some of you hopefully are aware of, made the High North’s challenges and opportunities our top priority.

I have been asked to set the scene and talk to you about the challenges we face in the High North. Let me introduce this landscape by citing a few lines from the Norwegian poet Rolf Jacobsen. His gripping poem “North” has not only reached the status of an unofficial regional anthem on this side of the Arctic Circle. It has also become a literary point of reference for what lies ahead.

And this is Rolf Jacobsen’s advice, as he points out the direction for us:

”Walk into the wind. Climb mountains.                                                     
Look to the north.                                                                                          
More often.                                                                                                          
This country is long.                                                                                  
Most of it is north.”

Most of Norway is north. And I would argue that the present government is convincingly doing exactly what Rolf Jacobsen encouraged: We are looking more often to the north.

As a matter of fact, we are not only looking more often to the north. We are talking more about the north, we are travelling more in the north and, most importantly: We are doing more in the north.

For people living further south, I would presume that the natural question to ask is “Why?” Why have we moved the High North centre stage and made it a strategic priority?

The answer, in one word, is change. And hence, this is the challenge we have embarked on: The fine art of dealing with change in the High North.

I would like to point to three areas where we are observing changes with far-reaching consequences: energy, climate and security policy.

First, let me address an area which has become one of the main drivers behind the changes we are witnessing in the High North: energy.
Oil and gas are already produced in the Barents Sea and the Pechora Sea. In a world where energy supply and energy security are becoming important security policy issues, it is not surprising to see growing interest in the High North as an emerging energy province.

According to the US Geological Survey, as much as a quarter of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas resources may be located in the Arctic. In a comparative perspective one might argue that energy has replaced strategic nuclear deterrence as the main source of interest in this region.

We will turn a new page in this story within a few weeks. Soon the first tanker filled with liquefied natural gas from the Snøhvit field – the world’s northernmost LNG project – will leave the process plant outside Hammerfest with destination Spain.

Finds and reserves are opening new future perspectives for the entire circumpolar Arctic. The strategic importance of the High North will increase. And there will be business opportunities for all of us.
This is all nice and well. Good business. More energy. Nice neighbours. New perspectives.

It leads me, however, to the second fundamental change we are observing in the High North, and that is a development we witness with dismay. I am of course thinking of climate change. It seems that we human beings have to see something before we believe in it. Friends of the High North, we are seeing it now. This front page on one of Norway’s largest newspapers from last Thursday describes the shocking rate at which the Arctic ice is melting.

In May last year I had, for the first time, the opportunity to see a polar bear in the wild. I had invited my Nordic colleagues to Spitsbergen, and as we were flying above the snow and ice between Longyearbyen and Ny-Ålesund, the sight of a running polar bear beneath attracted our attention.

It was a sight of extraordinary natural beauty, one of those once-in-a-lifetime experiences you’ll never forget. But at the same time, it was a sight that filled me with worry and afterthought. Where can these beautiful animals thrive and find food when their habitat is being dramatically reduced? In only six days this month, from the 3rd to the 9th of September, 180 000 square kilometres of Arctic ice disappeared. That is more than half the size of Norway. It is almost twice the size of Island or the Kola peninsula. In six days.

My point here today is that as we are trying to mobilize the international community into ways of reducing greenhouse emissions, we must at the same time prepare for the possible consequences of climate change. We must both change our policy and adapt to the consequences of it.

Here in the High North global warming may open up potential natural resources that until now have been inaccessible. New sea lines will shorten long distance routes considerably. The way we trade with Asia may be significantly altered if these hitherto inaccessible routes open and the Northeast passage becomes a possible travel route. Canadians now face similar possibilities brought by the opening of the Northwest passage, and I am looking forward to hearing the Canadian perspectives on this later on today. Important fisheries might be relocated as the fish move to find their favoured food and temperature. Old inhabitants may have to move. New players will perhaps enter the field. New partners will emerge. Exciting opportunities will present themselves. Yet, competition and potential conflicts may be lurking in a future that suddenly is not so distant any longer.

I now turn from energy and climate issues to security- and defence policy. The changing political scene acts as a compass when we choose direction in the other two areas.
A predictable security policy framework will be of paramount strategic importance as we 1: face potential new trade routes that may alter the way we do business with the East, as we 2: witness dire climate changes that affect everything we know and as we 3: watch Norway’s largest neighbour change before our eyes. These issues concern both the individual states that border the Northern seas, as well as our international partners, including NATO and the UN. As the ice melts and poses dilemmas we cannot ignore our ability to effectively deal with change and determine security policy that firmly draws up guidelines that embody both opportunities and challenges will be crucial.

As far as Russia is concerned, the end of the Cold War may by now be perceived as a cliché by some, a worn-out phrase. Perhaps we should more aptly talk about the end of “the end of the Cold War”. Regardless of perceptions, our relation with Russia and our past history remain issues we cannot ignore.
Norway and Russia have lived in peace for one thousand years. In this new era, we are rediscovering patterns of trade and exchange that date back centuries.

Norwegians again travel, do business and marry on the Russian side, and vice versa. In 1990, around 3000 people crossed the border close to Kirkenes. Now the number has climbed above 100 000. The figures tell their own stories of increased relations and contact. And this is good news. We want the Norwegian-Russian border to be a bridge, not a barrier.

If we look at the security- and defence policy, here too the overall picture is one of improved cooperation and new opportunities. Our relationship with Russia is basically good. As I speak, a delegation from the Artillery University in St. Petersburg is visiting the Military Academy in Oslo. Earlier this month Norwegian frigate “Horten” called on the Russian Northern Fleet’s main base in Severomorsk, an event that would have been unthinkable some years ago. And last week a Russian submarine was for the first time - at least to the best of our knowledge - docking in the Norwegian Navy’s main base in Bergen…

New opportunities will come, following a Russian ratification of the long awaited SOFA-agreement with NATO. This agreement opens up for new confidence building measures between Russia and NATO nations, such as for example joint exercises on Russian territory.

We note that the Russian defence budget is growing. We know that North-West Russia still is an area of strategic importance and that Russia maintains a considerable military presence in this region. We have observed that Russian strategic bombers are back outside our coastline and other places.

We do not conceive the modernisation of the Russian armed forces as a threat to Norway. At the same time Russia today is a country in transition, richer than before and more self-confident on the international scene.
 
There are reasons to be concerned about some of the trends. We cannot foresee where these developments are taking us. Therefore we are following them actively.

The Norwegian Armed Forces’ presence in the North, the Coast Guard included, will be maintained at a high level. The purpose is to secure sovereignty and exercise authority, as well as effective crisis management.

We remain committed to strengthening our partnership with Russia, both bilaterally and through the NATO-Russia Council.

Ladies and gentlemen,
Energy, climate change and security policy are main drivers that are turning the Arctic stage. A new, challenging scene is emerging in front of our eyes. Confronted with this literal sea of change, how shall we manoeuvre when we move from something we know to a new situation which we know is unknown?

When we dispatch our personnel to international operations, we always send with them some “rules of engagement”. These rules are strict guidelines for their conduct in a specific situation.

We have no “rules of engagement” in the strict military sense here in the High North. But we have a number of important principles that guide our policy of engagement in this region.
 
One of these principles on which our High North policy is based, is that we must be informed. At all times. We must know what is going on in our territory and our neighbourhood. The intelligence officer can assure us that moving foreign military warplanes and naval ships are on a harmless mission. The coast guard will check that the trawlers’ logbooks are in order. The international researchers in Ny-Ålesund are in an excellent position to provide us with an early warning when winds of change are blowing and ice is melting. Correct, relevant and updated knowledge is the key to wise decisions and is vital to our security as well as all other aspects of policymaking.

To secure that we are well-informed, we must be there. Presence - on land, at sea and in the air - is therefore another principle. But presence is a prerequisite not only for collecting information. We have to physically be on the spot to safeguard national sovereignty and exercise authority. A coastal state that takes its responsibilities seriously must vigilantly carry out inspection and other control activities appropriately in our jurisdiction zones. This requires a 24/7 presence in the maritime areas – we must always be ready with qualified personnel and high-quality capabilities.

A third principle is predictability. I think that is of especially great importance in times of change. It does not mean that we are not able to adapt to a changing environment. It means that we shall be transparent and clear, and inform each other about potential changes.

Consistent behaviour builds stability and reduces the possibility of misunderstandings and unwelcome surprises. Captains on trawlers shall be in no doubt that if they are in the wrong place, or fish too much, or take on board undersized fish, they risk being arrested and prosecuted.

Predictability on the fishing banks is good for the honest fisherman and it improves our chances of preserving important fishing stocks for future generations. This is a principle that includes everyone and leaves no one out, as we expect the same from our neighbours and partners as we expect from ourselves: to contribute to the preservation of this vast and important area.

A fourth principle that guides our policy of engagement in the High North is respect for international law. If we all play by the rules set down by the United Nations and other international bodies, I am convinced that we can preserve the stability and the peaceful environment here in the years to come. It is no secret that some of the energy-producing areas in the world are prone to tension and conflict. Let us show the world that the circumpolar nations can cooperate and find common ground also when it comes to the management of natural resources.

The fifth and last principle I will mention is sustainability. The need for hard work is of paramount importance if we are to succeed and achieve our goal of delivering planet earth to our children and grandchildren in better shape than it was a generation or two ago.

We have a responsibility towards our descendants - and the struggling polar bears. Let us think sustainability in all that we do in the High North. We have no right to reduce the earth’s living qualities for future generations.

Dear friends,
Knowledge, presence, predictability, international law and sustainability. If we can agree upon these principles as a guide for our activities in the High North, chances are good that the new chapter we are about to write about this region will have a happy ending.

It requires that we make history of disagreements, and make new history – one of cooperation and stability that will produce a future with prosperity and wellbeing for man and all other living things. Challenges will be turned into opportunities.

This is a tall order. To succeed, we – the governments – need assistance from the highly qualified actors on this scene. As the region is emerging from the frost, we need your knowledge and your advice.

Will cooperation or rivalry dominate the way ahead?

It goes without saying, but I will say it anyway: We can only handle the challenges emerging from the changing Arctic together. We all share the responsibility for securing that the High North remains a peaceful and beautiful place to live.  We have to cooperate. Cooperate in the place where East and West cease to exist and leave North, only the North.

I am confident that this conference will give all of us essential knowledge and interesting viewpoints to reflect upon. I want to thank the Chief of Defence for his initiative and Director Rolf Tamnes and Kjetil Skogrand at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies for hosting this conference and thereby giving us this opportunity to come together.

As we proceed through the agenda, let us not forget the advice from the poet Rolf Jacobsen. When turning our attention to the north in search of more knowledge and a deeper understanding, we shall not shy away from – if necessary – walking into the wind or climbing mountains. The issue is well worth the trouble. And let us, together, handle the Arctic challenges in such a way that we like what we see when we in the coming years turn our heads more often to the High North.

Thank you for your attention.