The National Budget 2018

Key figures in the fiscal budget 2018

To ensure simultaneous access to potentially market sensitive information in the fiscal budget, selected key figures are unveiled prior to the budget release.

The cyclical downturn that followed the fall in oil prices three years ago has come to an end. The Norwegian economy has rebounded sooner than expected, and the forecast for this year’s growth has been revised up markedly. Already next year, growth is projected to exceed its historical trend.

Labour market conditions are improving. Going forward, employment growth is expected to pick up and the unemployment rate is projected to fall.

The 2018 budget implies a neutral fiscal stance, with a fiscal impulse of less than 0.1 percentage points. Spending of petroleum revenues is estimated at 2.9 percent of the capital in the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of 2018. This is below the long-term fiscal rule of 3 percent.

Table: Selected key figures in the fiscal budget 2018

 

2016

2017

2018

Real gross domestic product (mainland Norway)1

1,0

2,0

2,5

Employement, persons1

0,3

0,7

1,1

Unemployment rate (LFS)

4,7

4,3

4,0

Fiscal impulse2

0,7

0,4

0,1

Spending of petroleum revenues3

2,7

2,9

2,9

1) Change from previous year in percent.
2) Structural, non-oil fiscal deficit measured in percent of trend GDP for mainland Norway. Change from previous year in percentage points.
3) Structural, non-oil budget deficit measured in per cent of the capital in the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of the year.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Ministry of Finance.