National Budget 2019:

Outline of economic developments and fiscal policy

The Ministry of Finance unveils selected key figures prior to the budget release, which takes place at 10:00, to ensure simultaneous access to potentially market sensitive information. A table with more detailed projections will be released together with the budget.

The cyclical downturn that followed the fall in oil prices four years ago has come to an end, and the economy is in a cyclical upturn. Economic growth is above its historical trend and is projected to increase further next year. In the National Budget 2019, growth in the mainland economy is projected to be 2.3 per cent this year and 2.7 per cent next year.

The labour market is improving, and unemployment has come down across the entire country. Employment is increasing markedly. The share of the working age population in employment is increasing, after several years of decline. In the National Budget 2019, unemployment is projected to decline from 3.8 per cent this year to 3.7 per cent next year.

The National Budget for 2019 implies a neutral fiscal stance. Spending of petroleum revenues is estimated at NOK 231.2 billion, as measured by the structural, non-oil deficit. This is equivalent to 2.7 percent of the capital in the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of 2019.

Table: Selected key figures in the National Budget 2019

 

2017

2018

2019

Real gross domestic product (mainland Norway)1

2.0

2.3

2.7

Employement, persons1

1.1

1.6

1.3

Unemployment rate (LFS)

4.2

3.8

3.7

Structural, non-oil fiscal deficit measured in bill. fixed 2019 NOK

226.4

226.7

231.2

Fiscal impulse2

0.2

-0.1

0.0

Spending of petroleum revenues3

2.9

2.6

2.7

1) Change from previous year in per cent.
2) Structural, non-oil fiscal deficit measured in percent of trend mainland GDP. Change from previous year in percentage points.
3) Structural, non-oil budget deficit measured in per cent of the capital in the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of the year.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Ministry of Finance.

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