The need for personnel in the health and care services is growing faster than the supply. If current trends continue, Statistics Norway’s projections indicate a shortfall of 42,400 health personnel in the health and care services by 2040.

‘There will continue to be a great need for health and care services in the future, especially in the municipalities. For a long time, there has been discussion of the growing need for health personnel. With Helsepersonellplan 2040, we are moving from statistics and projections to a plan containing more than 150 concrete measures on how to retain and recruit qualified personnel in the services. No single measure can provide enough qualified personnel, which is why we must act on several front at the same time,’ said Vestre.

Helsepersonellplan 2040 has been announced as an important part of the Government’s Plan for Norway (in Norwegian). The measures presented today are grouped into two main categories:

  • Measures to increase the supply of labour, with emphasis on working conditions and education.
  • Measures to curb the need for labour, with emphasis on the division of responsibilities and tasks, digitalisation and artificial intelligence, efficient use of resources and prioritisation, and buildings.

‘Taken together, the measures in the plan can close the gap between the personnel needed and the labour available,’ said Vestre.

An illustrated female health worker is walking up a staircase, with each health personnel-saving measure described on a separate step.
The figure shows how various measures in Helsepersonellplan 2040 can help increase the supply of personnel while also curbing demand up to 2040. Measures on the supply side include increased education capacity, a higher proportion of full-time posts, more weekend work, reduced sickness absence, later retirement after the age of 62, and more full-time equivalent posts from personnel aged over 60. Demand can be reduced through technology, better division of responsibilities and tasks, and more efficient use of resources. Overall, the figure illustrates considerable potential for reducing staffing challenges. (Caption taken from page 11 of the Health Personnel Plan 2040.) Credit: Ministry of Health and Care Services

The plan covers all personnel groups

By 2040, based on the current way of staffing the services, there will be a need for 170,000 employees outside the largest health personnel groups for which projections are available. This represents an increase of 44,500 full-time equivalent posts compared with current levels. These are employees who are absolutely vital to the services, but for whom we currently do not have supply projections.

‘We need the entire workforce with us, which is why the measures in the plan cover all personnel groups needed to ensure the best possible health and care services,’ said Vestre.

Helsepersonellplan 2040 will be considered by the Storting in autumn 2026, and the Minister of Health and Care Services is keen to secure broad political agreement on the measures in the plan.

‘For our citizens, this is about health security for patients, users and next of kin alike. For employees, the public health and care services must be a workplace where they experience mastery, professional development and a secure working day. For managers in the sector, we will provide better tools and framework conditions for the necessary restructuring needed to ensure sustainable health and care services also in the future,’ said Vestre.

Possible effects of the measures

Calculations have been made of the potential effects of various priority areas and measures in Helsepersonellplan 2040. The estimates show that:

  • Technology, the division of responsibilities and tasks, and efficient use of resources can reduce needs by 17,300 full-time equivalent posts.
  • Increased education capacity can provide 6,500 additional full-time equivalent posts.
  • A higher proportion of full-time posts (by 10 per cent) can provide up to 22,000 additional full-time equivalent posts.
  • Changed working time arrangements for weekend work can provide between 3,100 and 6,400 additional full-time equivalent posts.
  • Later retirement (1 to 3 years after the age of 62) can provide between 4,300 and 13,200 full-time equivalent posts.
  • Increasing the proportion of those aged over 60 who work in the services can provide from 3,400 to 8,200 additional full-time equivalent posts
  • Reduced sickness absence is estimated to provide from 2,400 to 4,800 additional full-time equivalent posts

Note: The effects cannot be added together directly because they overlap and influence one another. The estimates are intended to illustrate the order of magnitude of the effects and the range of what may be achieved.

Table showing projections for 14 different educational groups of health personnel.
The figures for the gap between supply and demand are calculated on the basis of the assumptions in the reference pathway and must be interpreted with caution. The size of the gap depends, among other things, on assumptions regarding the skills composition in the services, including how labour needs are distributed between educational groups. In Statistics Norway’s analysis, this distribution is based on observed employment shares in the base year 2024 and is assumed to remain unchanged over time. Changes in the division of responsibilities and tasks, the skills mix, organisation, technology and other assumptions may therefore produce different estimates of the gap. (Caption taken from page 17 of the Health Personnel Plan 2040.) Credit: Ministry of Health and Care Services

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