The Norwegian economy is performing well despite uncertainty in the global economy. Activity is growing more rapidly than last year, unemployment remains low and projections indicate a gradual decline in consumer price inflation and continued real wage growth. GDP for mainland Norway is projected to grow by 2.0 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent next year.

Fiscal policy for 2026 entails continued responsible economic management. Fund spending is estimated at NOK 579 billion. Measured as a share of trend GDP for mainland Norway, the total fund spending amounts to 13.1 per cent – up from 12.6 per cent this year. This includes continued support to Ukraine amounting to NOK 85 billion, equivalent to 1.9 per cent of trend GDP for mainland Norway. Fund spending corresponds to 2.8 per cent of the value of the Government Pension Fund Global, which is lower than the expected real return of the Fund. Underlying expenditure growth in the National Budget for 2026 is 1 per cent. Calculations using the KVARTS and NORA macro models indicate that the budget for 2026 will have an approximately neutral effect on activity in the economy next year.

Table: Key figures in the National Budget 20261

Norwegian economy

2024

2025

2026

GDP for mainland Norway (volume)

0.6

2.0

2.1

Employment, persons

0.5

0.8

0.7

Unemployment rate, registered (level)

2.0

2.1

2.1

CPI

3.1

2.8

2.2

CPI-ATE

3.7

2.9

2.5

Organisation of the economic policy

     

Fund spending, per cent of the GPFG2

2.6

2.7

2.8

Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion, current prices

410.3

534.2

579.4

Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, 2026 NOK billion

438.0

550.6

579.4

Structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of trend-GDP for mainland Norway

10.2

12.6

13.1

Changes in the structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of trend-GDP for mainland Norway from the previous year

0.9

2.4

0.4

Underlying expenditure growth

3.1

5.2

1.0

Impact of the 2026 budget programme on GDP for mainland Norway according to macro models3

    

0.1

1 Percentage change from previous year, unless otherwise stated. Figures for 2025-26 are forecasts.

2 Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of the GPFG at the start of the year.

3 Based on calculations using the KVARTS and NORA macro models which, among other things, take into account that different expenditures and revenues have different effects on activity in the economy. The calculations are based on all public administration, i.e., central and local government administration.