Key figures in the National Budget for 2027

The Norwegian economy is thriving; however there has been a slight decline in growth the past year. The Norwegian economy is affected by the current global unrest and expectations have risen in relation to price growth and interest rates in the past six months. At the same time, wages have increased more than prices, and this trend is expected to continue in both 2026 and 2027. The improvement in purchasing power lays the foundation to expect increased growth in private consumption and overall economic activity moving forward.

Through the fiscal policy framework for 2027, the Government will continue to govern with sound financial management. The Government proposes to spend BNOK 608.4 of the Government Pension Fund, which includes BNOK 85 in support to Ukraine. Fund spending increases with BNOK 4.9 from this year measured in fixed 2027 prices, and corresponds to 2.7 % of the value of the Government Pension Fund Global. Measured as a share of the trend GDP for mainland Norway, fund spending amounts to 12.6 %. This is unchanged from this year, and the budget indicator is 0.0. The budget proposal is estimated to have a neutral effect on the activity in the economy next year.

Table: Key economic figures in the National Budget for 2027  

Norwegian economy1	2025	2026	2027
GDP mainland Norway (volume)	1.7	1.1	1.7
Employment	0.7	0.6	0.4
Unemployment rate, registered (level)	2.1	2.1	2.1
CPI	3.1	3.3	2.7
CPI-ATE	3.1	3.1	2.8
Annual wage	4.9	4.6	4.0
Fiscal stance2
Fund spending, per cent of the GPFG3	2.6	2.7	2.7
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, billion, value of NOK in 2027	545.7	603.5	608.4
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, billion, NOK, current prices	507.4	583.4	608.4
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, as a percentage of trend GDP for mainland Norway	11.6	12.7	12.6
Changes in structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of trend GDP for mainland Norway from the previous year (budget indicator)4	1.8	1.1	0.0
Real underlying expenditure growth, per cent	4.1	2.7	0.2
Percentage effect of the budget plan for 2027 on the GDP of mainland Norway according to macro models5			0.1–0.2

Sources: Statistics Norway and the Ministry of Finance

¹ Percentage change from the previous year unless otherwise specified.

² Figures for 2026 are forecasts based on financial estimates for 2026.

³ The structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of the capital in the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of the year. The value of the fund is computationally estimated to be BNOK 22 400 at the beginning of 2027. This is around BNOK 1 100 higher than at the beginning of 2026.

⁴ Positive figures may indicate that the budget works expansively. The indicator does not take into consideration that different income and expense items can have a different impact on the activity in the economy. The budget indicator for 2027 is -0,04.

⁵ Based on calculations using the KVARTS and NORA macro models which, among other things, take into consideration that different income and expenses affect the activity in the economy differently. The calculations are based on all public administration, i.e., local government administration and government administration.