Dear colleagues and friends,

Thank you to NUPI and FFI for bringing us together for this year’s Russia Conference.

It is a pleasure to be here again, and especially to open a conference devoted to a subject that is difficult, but no less important: violence in Russia, and its political, economic and social consequences.

Today’s programme illustrates why such a broad approach is necessary. Violence does not exist separately from politics, society or the economy. Nor can developments inside Russia be separated from Russia’s war against Ukraine or from the security challenges that Russia presents to its neighbours and to Europe. Oppression and aggression go hand in hand.

Understanding these interlinkages is essential to formulating sound policy and protecting Norwegian interests.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked a fundamental turning point for European security. Norway must now deal with an increasingly authoritarian and militarised Russia whose current policies constitute a long-term threat to Norwegian and Allied security.

Our policy is adapted to this new reality.

We will continue to support Ukraine’s inherent right to defend itself against Russian aggression. Russia must end its attacks, respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, and demonstrate a genuine willingness to pursue peace. A just and lasting peace must be shaped with Ukraine and must safeguard Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

Despite widespread international condemnation, Putin remains intent on his political goal of controlling Ukraine and its people. One issue of particular concern: the deported children and those living in temporarily occupied territories, who are being forced to abandon their culture, curriculum, language and history.

The consequences of violence against Ukraine are also felt within Russia itself. Political oppression has intensified and the space for free expression has narrowed dramatically. Those who oppose the authorities face increasingly severe consequences.

At the same time, the violence of the war is increasingly feeding back into Russian society. Returning veterans, many with previous criminal records and with recent experience of extreme violence and serious difficulties adjusting to civilian life, will present a growing social challenge. We are already seeing serious crime involving those who have returned from the front.

The effects of this war will be felt in Russian society for many, many years to come. I hope today’s conference can help us prepare for this future.

The violent consequences of the war in Russia will continue after the war. But ending the war will improve the situation. Putin should understand that it is the best way forward for his country. Together with our partners, we will continue to reduce Russia’s political and economic room for manoeuvre. This includes sanctions, coordinated measures against the shadow fleet, and efforts to counter Russian influence operations and circumvention of sanctions.

At the same time, Norway and Russia remain neighbours. As at least the Norwegians in the room would have heard many times before: We cannot escape our own geography.

Because geography does not disappear when political relations deteriorate. We share a 197.7 km land border (yes, I grew up almost next to it) and maritime areas in the High North. Russia’s Northern Fleet and a significant part of its strategic nuclear capabilities are located close to Norway.

This places a particular responsibility on us. Norway must act with firmness and predictability. We must strengthen our defence and national resilience – and stand together with our Allies, while underlining that NATO is defence alliance.

Regular political contact with Russia has been suspended. Yet, neighbours need channels of communication, especially in times like these. We will maintain selected channels where necessary to safeguard important national interests, including fisheries management, border control, search and rescue, military risk reduction and diplomatic representation. Maintaining these channels is part of responsibly managing a difficult but lasting relationship – and is crucial to avoid misunderstandings and unintended escalation.

Russia has chosen its current course. Russian authorities are responsible for the situation we are in today. But choices can change. Russia has changed before and will change again.

If Russia changes course, ends its aggression and signals willingness to uphold its commitments to international law, we should be prepared to consider new forms of engagement, grounded in the lessons learned since February 2022 and in Norwegian and Allied security interests.

And this brings me to the importance of knowledge and expertise.

This is a core dilemma: Our need for knowledge about Russia has grown at precisely the moment when our access to Russia, and our direct contact with Russian institutions and society, have diminished.

We need to understand the structures and actors shaping Russian policy. We need knowledge of Russian society, the economy, the regions, the security services and the political system. We need to understand not only what Russia does, but why Russian authorities act as they do, how decisions are made, and how developments inside the country affect Russia’s behaviour abroad.

This requires sustained investment in language skills, area knowledge, research and practical experience. It also requires active cooperation and dialogue between government, research institutions and civil society. And as we know – to train the researchers, diplomats and civil society specialists of tomorrow we must have a strong and vibrant academic community working on Russia.

RUSSNETT is an important part of this effort. The network brings together expertise across sectors and institutions, supports the exchange of knowledge and experience, and helps ensure that Norway maintains and develops its expertise on Russia over time.

Let me be clear of behalf of the Government: We remain open for new ideas, new initiatives on how we in these circumstances can maintain and develop expertise on Russia – and we are willing to find the funding for good ideas.

One element is that we continuously need to renew our collective expertise. We need opportunities for younger researchers, civil servants and language specialists, institutions that continue to teach Russian language, politics, history and society, and professional communities where experience and new knowledge can meet.

Today’s conference is one such arena. By examining how violence shapes Russian politics, economy and society, we gain a deeper understanding of Russia’s internal dynamics and how they affect the country’s development and its relations with the outside world. Developments that will affect us in years to come.

Let there be no doubt: The expertise gathered in this room is a strategic asset and an important resource for Norway. I encourage you to use today’s conference to examine difficult questions, challenge established assumptions and share knowledge across institutional boundaries.

Again, Norway can choose neither our geography nor our neighbours. But we can choose how well prepared we are to understand and manage this relationship.

Thank you for your attention – I wish you all a productive conference.