The Prime Minister's guest lecture on ‘Navigating a Changing Arctic – Sovereignty, Security and Cooperation’

Checked against delivery (transcribed from audio recording)

(The Prime Minister started his lecture with a few words in French. Some maps of the Northern Hemisphere and photos from Norway and Arctic were also shown)

Je suis très heureux d'être ici, dans l'une des plus anciennes universités du Canada, pour parler d'un sujet très serein, de mandat d'Arctique, vous l'avez bien souligné. – Et surtout pour pouvoir faire ça ici, au Canada, un partenaire avec lequel on travaille beaucoup plus étroitement maintenant qu'en d'autres temps.

J'étais ici, je pense, en 2007, en tant que ministre des Affaires étrangères, et à l'époque, on ne pouvait pas vraiment discuter d'Arctique et de sécurité, parce qu'on avait deux notions complètement différentes.

Maintenant, on a un agenda qui rassemble, et qui inspire, et qui se traduit par des projets très concrets, et je souligne un certain nombre de ces projets aujourd'hui.

Donc, j'ai trois points. Je vais dire ça en français. Mesdames et Messieurs, d'abord, il faut illustrer un peu que l'Arctique, c'est une région en pleine transformation, qui devient plus importante, et qui devient un enjeu. Il faut comprendre ça. Il y a deux grandes raisons pour ça. C'est le changement climatique, qui change la nature, et aussi les jeux géographiques.

Et puis je vais consacrer mon attention surtout à la géographie et à la sécurité, et puis je tournerai au-delà de la question.

Norway and Canada

So, dear friends, on geography; your view of the world depends on where you stand. I see that the United Nations have now produced a new world map where Greenland looks much smaller and where the continent of Africa – well, we don't see it here (on this map behind me) – is much bigger. The new map presents the world in a different way.

But I’ve put up this map first – and I’ll brought with me a couple of other maps – because I think they tell us a lot: Both our countries – Norway and Canada – are Arctic states. And in my country, of five and a half million people, ten percent of Norwegian people live in the Arctic, that's about 500,000. So, in a way, many more people live in ‘our’ Arctic than in ‘your’ Arctic, because the environment is such. We have indigenous peoples.

Yesterday, I handed a gift to Prime Minister Carney, which was a map that Norwegian explorers made of these areas 120 years ago, at a very risky expedition. So, our polar research, our polar explorers, they also have a commonality. Actually, they went to map the western parts of Greenland, and they ended up here, mapping these areas.

This is a huge map and the link is the sea between our countries. In fact, Roald Amundsen, who was the first man to reach the South Pole in 1911, he was also the first to sail the Northwestern Passage between 1903 and 1906 on a ship called Gjøa, which is exposed in Oslo. There many of you can see it. It is extraordinary that the ship could come through. And some of you will know that they stayed during the winters in these territories – and that's why there's a beautiful place in Canada called Gjøa Haven which comes from the ship’s name, because they stayed there for a year.

Another thing which is interesting is that after Ireland, Norway is the European country with the largest emigration, because of poverty, in the 19th century. So, today there are more than 400,000 Canadians with Norwegian origins. How many of them do you know? Are you one of them? I think that's an interesting observation.

We also share interests in a number of areas of society, leisure and sports. And being a sports-interested man, I have to say that for Norway, this year, experiencing a bronze medal in the world championship of ice hockey, after beating Canada, well – it could be a short-lived success, because I know the revenge will be brutal.

Then, you know, as a politician, I have grown up looking at Canada as what we call a like-minded country. Which means that, you know, some of the instincts, some of the values, how we approach nature, politics, participation, democracy, there are similarities. – And differences. That's what makes life actually interesting.

Strategic partnership

What I’ve experienced during my term in politics – which is now a bit more than 20 years – is that we are coming closer together. And that Canada has as its approach of considering itself being ‘an Arctic-Nordic country’. And that's why we welcomed – back in 2023 – Justin Trudeau, to a Nordic Prime Minister meeting in Iceland. And when Prime Minister Carney visited me in Oslo back in March (2026), all my Nordic colleagues came up for a Sunday brunch, because we have things to do together. I think that will continue and it will do.

And I note in Canada, as in Norway, you know, we get questions from journalists, like: Why do you, Prime Minister, travel as much as you do? You should look after your things back home? – Well, we do. And I think that what we are doing here is really all about the daily lives we live in our countries: Our jobs, our future, our environment, climate change, resources – all that where we have to work together. There's simply no other way to do that.

Norway and Canada are now developing a strategic partnership. Last night we had a good discussion on how to follow up on that. And this is a partnership addressing also many of the modern challenges and opportunities that we see. Artificial intelligence, space cooperation, critical minerals, how we continue to cut emissions while we create jobs. – These are all the challenges that we can work on together.

Where is the Arctic?

Let me go back to this one (map) for one second, because one opportunity and challenge we have as an Arctic state, is to explain to the rest of the world the realities of the Arctic. And I will share with you the following: When I was a student down here in Paris in the early 80s, I made a point to my professor and to my class that when you in France have your weather report on TV, on the news, Europe stops here: So, you have the 60th parallel, that runs through Helsinki, Stockholm, Oslo, Bergen and around the world. And I always felt as a young Norwegian that there is something north of your TV screen, which is substantial and great, and you know ‘zero’ about it. So, when I had courses in Soviet history, when I had courses in geostrategy, when I had courses in culture and indigenous people claiming their rights in UN institutions, everything happening up here was really absent from the big discussions down there.

This is strange, because geostrategy is coming in and it matters much more. And, friends and students, I think we can be part of geopolitics, and what is the word – it’s geopolitics, it's geo and politics, geography and politics. – The only thing which is not changing is geography; you cannot choose your geography. Look at Norway. We live up here, and there we have 200 kilometers border with Russia. If you are a Finn, you have about 1340 kilometers border with Russia.

Not a legal vacuum

So, this is geography. You cannot choose your geography; you have to take it as the point of departure. Even among the Nordics, we are considered to be very similar people, like-minded people, and we are. But if you run politics from Denmark, you have a different geographic outlook, because this is the entry into the Baltic Sea.

Then, if you are Norway, we have the second longest coastline in the world, second only to – Canada. So, it makes Norway – if you fly in from America to Norway – you fly over this immense ocean, and you find this tiny long strip of land; we have seven times more ocean and continental shelf than land. – And of course, it shapes our outlook.

So, this is how geography plays in, I think, for a person. I think it's a very interesting perspective. The only thing is that some people here in the ‘south’ who haven't followed this much, they are under the impression that up here, there's ‘a legal vacuum’, or what the historians call ‘terra nullius’. So, if you go there, you can just ‘take it’, the land. And I can tell you, that the explorers who went up here in 1903 and mapped these areas, they came back and said; ‘it should belong to Norway, because I'm a Norwegian explorer, and nobody owns these lands.’ Now, that has changed during the last century, but entering the 21st century, this is still the impression in some circles, that – you know – up here, nothing goes on, it's a ‘vacuum’, but that is not the case. 

And in 2007, in Ilulissat, Greenland, foreign ministers from the Arctic countries, including Russia, came together to state the obvious: The Law of the sea applies in the Arctic. So, up here, we have 200 kilometers of economic zones. We have continental shelves. We have the Law of the sea applying exactly in the same way as it does in the Mediterranean. And then there are, of course, vast areas that are outside the economic zones of coastal states, but they're applying to the same rules as down here. This is an important perspective. So, when the President of the United States come and say – ‘I want land up here’ – well, you cannot ‘want land’ that belongs to other countries.

And if there are borders that overlap – I will come back to that – you cannot simply conquer it by force. You have to negotiate your way in some way or another. This is another version of the map; it is a complex and beautiful territory.

Norway and Russia

You know, when I became foreign minister in 2005, I said that the High North would be our strategic priority, for three reasons. The first reason is that we see all the changes so close to us. The Soviet Union is no longer – and we will see what Russia will be. The second thing is that there are profound changes of climate, which is opening up sea routes. Back then, in 2005, people said that by the end of this century, you can sail this (Northeastern) passage. You can sail from Rotterdam in the Netherlands to Yokohama in Japan; this is a trade route, saving 40 percent time.

It's a rough environment, so it's not straightforward. It's just illustrating how everything up here will be more accessible, and therefore also how a geopolitical ‘stake’ is emerging.

I would like you to focus on this area for a moment because I'll show you a smaller map of this. Here – again is Norway and Russia – and here is the Barents Sea and the Arctic Sea. Up there is Svalbard in the northernmost part of Norway. It is as much Norway as this part, but it's far up there.

But now I'll show you a map of what happened when the Law of the sea gave economic zones to countries; creating sometimes over-lapping claims. So, in the mid-70s, Norway on this side and Russia on this side had what we call disputed areas. Russia thought the border should be a bit further west, and we thought it would be a bit further east. So, we had negotiations with Russia – this is what the Law of the sea says – to make a delimitation line. And it came to my watch as foreign minister to work very intensively with Russia – the same foreign minister as they have today, Sergei Lavrov – to find a deal on this.

You don't want to have a disputed border with Russia. It's not something you choose of course. So, we worked hard on that. The first stage was to make a treaty on this line, coming from the shores, and then how make territorial boundaries. That was in 2007. And in 2010, Norway and Russia agreed to split this area 50/50, so 176 000 square kilometers, 50 to one, 50 to the other. And the line of the delimitation was drawn exactly according to the modern principles of the Law of the sea.

So, those of you who have studied this, the Law of the sea, the cases, the delimitations, you go down to the Black Sea, you go down to other areas; what is the most recent way of doing it? And this is basically done on the basis of equidistance – so, what is the distance between the nearest shore on both sides to the line? And then you get this – technical one.

I make a point of this because this is what we were able to do in 2010. I can tell you I'm happy that we don’t have to do this now, and that we are sitting down with Russian under today’s circumstances.

So, we have borders with all our neighbors. This is settled and this is good for security.

The perspective from the Arctic

Then there is this map. Now, you really have to stand on your head and try to figure out. This is our part of the High North, seen from the North. The Svalbard Islands that I showed you, up there, on top of the map, that is in the center now. Here is Norway, in light brown. You see our northern coastline, basically from the Atlantic. You see Sweden and Finland, without borders, the Nordics as one territory.

And – here is Russia. And here is the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The Russian submarines, second-strike capacity of Russia. And when I meet President Trump, when I met him first time, I said – you know, it is the responsibility for a Norwegian Prime Minister to sit in the room of the President to say; ‘Mr. President, 100 kilometers from my border is the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. It is not directed against me, as a Norwegian Prime Minister, it is directed against you, Mr. President’.

So, following what is happening here, monitoring security and stability here, that is your homeland security. And we do it for you and with you. This is a part of NATO. So, with our partners, you know, we can have a pretty clear surveillance picture of what happens here.

Another issue to focus on, which is important, is the depth of the seas. The Barents Sea is a rather shallow water, 200-300 meters. But when you get out here, you reach depths of 5,000 meters. So, if you want to track, for example, a submarine, you can do that with modern technology in various ways. It's far easier to do it here; and when you come out there, it becomes more difficult.

Security

So, this is how it looks. But strategically, if you study geopolitics and strategy, this is an important image. – Because in the past, Norway's security was focused on our own ability to defend ourselves. And if there were a critical situation, we would get support across the Atlantic. And for Russia, protecting their nuclear arsenal here is really about the ability to close off these waters so that there won't be enemy ships coming in.

But now, Sweden and Finland are members of NATO. So, this is not only the focus of our security, but also their security. So, a lot of this is really changing.

I love this map. I think it's – especially if you use it for my French friends, where I'm saying; ‘Now, friends, you are going to experience what it is to be at the margins of a map.’ – France is down there somewhere. Because this is the center. So, in geography, everything is a center.

Andøya Spaceport

A few comments now on what are the new opportunities. This is not a military image. It's an image of what happened out of Andøya in Norway. – And I have to show you the geography; Andøya is here. This is the Lofoten Islands, a very beautiful place, and here is Andøya. And Andøya has the rocket launch site, the only one in Europe, continental Europe, where you can launch rockets bringing satellites. I think that something like eight out of ten of these rockets launches globally today are sent out by SpaceX and Elon Musk.

And the first launch from a European site happened here at Andøya three weeks ago, a successful launch by a German company from the spaceport at Andøya.

This is part of new developments in the Arctic, because the Arctic is unique to get satellites out. This one – I visited this site before the rocket was launched – you know on top, the rocket was loaded with satellites from universities, like the University of Tromsø, from polar researchers. So, it's getting out there in the atmosphere, it takes eight minutes until it is out. And it has to be shot in a way that it goes out over an ocean, because this is, of course, not something you want to fall down where people live. But it's a beginning of something; now we can launch it. And to download information from satellites is also better to do in the High North geography.

So, it is an example of new activities emerging and an important part of new opportunities. It is becoming a more important area for geopolitical reasons. China is there. Russia is there. But, you know, people, they are ‘bragging’. I hear the U.S. President say that Greenland is surrounded by Chinese and Russian ships. That is simply not the fact, if you really monitor the activity. But since ice is melting, and this is strategically of importance, more countries will start to attract interest here in research and also for military purposes. 

High North, low tension

So, we have to prepare for all that, and we do, as NATO. This photo (Andfjorden, naval vessels) is not far away from the Andøya launch pad where we have our exercises. We have NATO's biggest winter exercise – the Cold Response exercise – we had it this year, co-organized by us and Finland, attracting some 30,000 troops. I was very happy to see that there were also Canadian troops, because this is where you can get winter training and, you know, a good way of working together.

And also, you know, since we focus on order, my kind of mantra for this region is to have ‘High North, low tension’, and preserved by low tension, by being predictable and long-term. And I think this is also in Russian interest, because they don't want to have instability around in these areas where they have their nuclear capacities. So, for that to happen, we have to have some control, some law, and some order.

And that is why we also have our surveillance of our border. This (photo) is a Norwegian military recruit. They would be typically 20 years old. They are teams who are out along that border of 200 kilometers. Basically, they go out for two weeks, and they are on their own to monitor a border, which is pretty – you know, it's a peaceful place – but we have to monitor it closely.

And we had this NATO exercise in March where Prime Minister Carney, the German Chancellor and I were there to visit our troops (photo of those three), where they get winter training experience, which is very useful.

Strengthening defense

We are now, as you know – I am now concluding – strengthening our defense capabilities in NATO. And – are we in a rearmament area of history? Well, you may say so, but think about it in this way: We are now starting in percentage of GDP to get back to where we were in 1990. So, in 1990, coming out of the Cold War, we were around 3 percent of GDP for defense. And then came years where things looked better, and we were able to spend less.

Now, with the war going on in Ukraine, with Russia rearming and announcing major build-ups, we also have to respond – you know – in a predictable way, investing more in our defense and to do it wisely.

We have to strengthen NATO, focus on partnerships. And for Norway, this is about being a NATO member, deepening our relations with the UK. – We buy our new frigates from the UK, which basically means integration of two navies. We buy new submarines from Germany, partly developed with Norwegian technology. And now it is great news that Canada will also buy those same submarines. So, between Norway, Germany, and Canada, we will have a partnership which is industrially very interesting and useful for all of us.

And we will continue to work for rule of law and peace in the region, respecting territorial integrity. And that's why we hope, as we read in the papers now, that this dispute between Denmark, Greenland and the U.S. may be settled in ways which respect those basic interests.

So, friends, in the end, geography is constant. The natural environment is changing because humanity is detecting challenges and we have to deal with that. We have climate obligations under the Paris Treaty, and those are absolutely sure obligations we have to meet. We have indigenous people in our regions. We have the Sami people in Norway. You have indigenous people in your region. We have UN obligations and treaties we have to respect.

And my final point, again; this is an area where – basically – there is low tension and stability. And it is the responsibility of countries like Canada and Norway to work towards those main principles of modern society. That is – where the Law of the sea applies, the rule of law applies, and diplomacy should be the main avenue to solve issues.

And there's a lot of things to do – and to explore in the Arctic, and let us do that through peaceful research. Let us visit universities like this one, this fine one. I'm happy to hear that you're sending people to Bodø in Norway in the coming weeks and make your ties even stronger. We are in the Arctic together – as two strong allies and friends. – Thank you for your attention!