– The value of the Pension Fund increased significantly in 2025, however in recent weeks we have once again seen that the Fund can fluctuate considerably over short periods. The outbreak of war in Iran has pushed oil prices up while the value of the Fund has declined. Today, the size of our financial wealth is roughly five times greater than the value of our petroleum resources in the ground. As an investor nation, this makes us more exposed to developments in global financial markets than to the price of oil, says Minister of Finance Jens Stoltenberg (Labor Party). 

– We have a long‑term investment strategy for the Pension Fund with broad political support – one that we can adhere to even in turbulent times. This is also in line with the assessment of the Expert Council earlier this year, the Minister adds.  

Strong performance in 2025

In 2025, the value of the Government Pension Fund Global rose by more than NOK
1 500 billion, reaching just under NOK 21 300 billion. The return was slightly above 15 percent, equivalent to almost NOK 2 400 billion. Net inflows exceeded NOK 300 billion, as the state’s revenues from petroleum activities were higher than the oil‑adjusted budget deficit. A stronger Norwegian krone reduced the Fund’s value in NOK terms by nearly NOK 1,200 billion in isolation.

The value of the Government Pension Fund Norway increased by more than NOK 35 billion last year, reaching approximately NOK 420 billion. The return was close to 13 percent.

Expert Council for the Government Pension Fund Global

The Ministry of Finance established an Expert Council for the Government Pension Fund Global in 2025. In its 2025 white paper, the Council emphasized the importance of clearly articulating the Fund’s financial purpose and conveying realistic expectations about what responsible investment can achieve. It also highlighted the importance for broad geographic diversification amid rising geopolitical risk. Additionally, the Council recommended comprehensive reviews of the investment strategy every five years to strengthen the Fund’s resilience.

For 2026, the Ministry of Finance has tasked the Expert Council with reviewing the investment strategy, with a particular focus on bond investments. The Ministry has also asked Norges Bank to develop scenarios for geopolitical risk, as well as analyses of the bond portfolio and concentration risk in the equity portfolio.

The Ministry will return to the Council’s remaining recommendations at a later stage.

Norges Bank’s active management

The Ministry of Finance regularly reviews Norges Bank’s management of the Fund.

This year’s white paper shows that the Fund’s value would have been between NOK 400 billion and NOK 600 billion lower without active management. Although the excess return achieved by Norges Bank is small in percentage terms, it represents substantial amounts in NOK. At the same time, performance in the real estate portfolio has been weak, prompting Norges Bank to make several adjustments to its real estate strategy.

The mandate issued by the Ministry of Finance allows Norges Bank to deviate from the reference index set by the Ministry. A key question in the reviews is whether the limit for such deviations should be adjusted. The Ministry concurs with Norges Bank’s assessment that the current framework for deviations from the benchmark index is sufficient and therefore proposes no changes in this report.