Key figures in the Revised National Budget 2026

Spending of Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) revenues in the Revised Budget is estimated at 579 billion NOK in 2026. This is 4.9 billion NOK lower than in the adopted budget.

Spending of fund revenue was estimated at 2.8 per cent of the value of the Government Pension Fund Global in the adopted budget. In the Revised Budget, spending of fund revenue is estimated to 2.7 per cent of fund value.

The budget programme for 2026 is estimated to have a neutral effect on the Norwegian economy. The budget impulse measures the change in the spending of fund revenues from one year to the next, measured as a share of trend GDP for mainland Norway. Spending of fund revenues is lower in the Revised Budget than in the adopted budget. Nevertheless, the budget impulse in the Revised Budget increases to 0.9, compared with 0.6 in the adopted budget, because the budget balance for 2025 improved compared to last autumn. Measured as a share of trend GDP for mainland Norway, spending of fund revenues in 2026 corresponds to 12.6 per cent.

Economic activity in Norway is expected to remain solid both this year and next, supported by continued low unemployment, employment growth and strong real wage growth. At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East has increased uncertainty about the economic outlook. Growth in the Norwegian economy is now projected to be slightly lower than forecasted in the national budget due to prospects of higher inflation and interest rates. Growth in the non-oil economy (GDP for mainland Norway) is projected at 1.7 per cent this year. This entails growth close to a normal level.

Table 1: Fiscal policy in 2025, adopted budget for 2025 and revised national budget for 2026¹

	2025	Adopted budget for 2026	Revised budget for 2026
Spending from the Government Pension Fund Global, per cent2	2.6	2.8	2.7
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion, fixed 2026 prices	531.0	584.0	579.0
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of trend GDP for mainland Norway	11.6	13.2*	12.6
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of trend GDP for mainland Norway. Change from previous year (fiscal impulse)3	1.8	0.6	0.9
Impact of the 2026 budget programme on GDP for mainland Norway as estimated by macroeconomic models4			0-0.1

¹ Figures for 2026 are projections. Percentage change from previous year unless otherwise stated.

² Structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of the fund capital in the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of the year

³ Change from previous year in percentage points.

⁴ Based on calculations using the KVARTS and NORA macro models which, among other things, take into account that different expenditures and revenues have different effects on activity in the economy. The calculations are based on all public administration, i.e., central and local government administration. 

* Since the adopted budget, Statistics Norway has published upward revisions of GDP for mainland Norway. The structural deficit in the adopted budget, measured as a percentage of trend GDP, is therefore not directly comparable with the figures for 2025 and the revised budget.

Source: Ministry of Finance.