Preserving Norway’s strong foundation in a turbulent world

“The war in the Middle East has contributed to a more uncertain outlook. For the government, it is important to continue a responsible economic policy to secure people’s finances and maintain the strong foundation Norway has in a more turbulent world,” says Minister of Finance Jens Stoltenberg (Labour Party).

The Revised National Budget provides an opportunity to adjust the national budget midway through the year. Ensuring financial security for people is a key priority for the government.

“In recent years we have reduced taxes for ordinary families, ensured historically low childcare prices, and introduced extensive electricity support schemes. This has helped shield household finances from the effects of higher energy prices and global inflation,” says the Minister of Finance.

Norway has a strong foundation, with high employment, businesses investing for the future, and robust public finances. Registered unemployment is low and below its historical average. Nevertheless, the Norwegian economy continues to be affected by global uncertainty. Inflation prospects have been revised upward over the winter. Growth in the Norwegian economy is expected to be somewhat lower than projected last autumn but is still expected to remain close to a normal level.

“High energy prices and increased inflation have weakened growth prospects for the global economy. The Norwegian economy has held up well, but we are not immune to developments abroad,” says the Minister of Finance.

The Government proposal for revised budget entails spending of fund revenue of 579 billion NOK, 4.9 billion less than in the adopted budget.

Spending of fund revenue corresponds to 2.7 per cent of the value of the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG). In the adopted budget, spending of fund revenue was estimated at 2.8 per cent of fund value.

The budget programme for 2026 is estimated to have a neutral effect on the Norwegian economy.

The revised budget includes a proposal to increase allocations for electricity support schemes by NOK 10 billion. Overall, expenditures on electricity support for households, including holiday homes, are estimated at NOK 21.5 billion in 2026. In addition, expenditure under the National Insurance Scheme is projected to increase by NOK 4.4 billion. Revenues are reduced by NOK 5.5 billion as a result of parliamentary decisions in March this year to lower fuel taxes. At the same time, structural tax revenues are estimated to be higher than last autumn. Increased dividends from listed companies also contribute to increased revenues.

In the budget the government proposes to permanently halt the Stad Ship Tunnel project. Over time this will result in savings of NOK 8.6 billion. In this year’s budget, NOK 150 million is being reallocated from the Stad Ship Tunnel project to road maintenance.

“Budget decisions will require more difficult trade-offs going forward. We must be prepared to reject projects that are too costly. Through the proposal for the revised national budget, the government is safeguarding the country, society, and people’s finances. Pursuing a responsible economic policy that supports high employment and continued real wage growth is essential to improving standards of living,” said the Minister of Finance.

Table 1: Key figures in the Revised National Budget 2026¹

Percentage change from previous year unless otherwise stated.	Billion NOK1			Estimates
	2025	2025	2026		2027
Real economy
	4 400	1.8	1.7		1.6
Employment, persons		0.7	0.6		0.4
Unemployment rate, registered (level)		2.1	2.1		2.1
Unemployment rate, Labour force survey (level)		4.5	4.5		4.5
Aggregate demand components
Demand from mainland Norway2	4 595	1.8	2.0		2.1
Private consumption	2 346	2.7	2.0		1.8
Mainland business investment	501	1.9	2.1		2.3
Housing investment	209	-3.6	3.2		4.8
Public sector demand	1 539	1.2	1.7		2.2
Investment in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport	283	8.2	-2.0		-5.5
Exports	2 504	2.4	1.2		0.1
Crude oil and natural gas	1 100	0.8	-0.3		-2.0
Goods and services from the mainland	1 216	5.2	3.2		2.0
Imports	1 858	2.6	2.5		1.9
Gross domestic product (GDP)	5 518	1.1	1.2		0.9
Prices
Annual earnings		4.9	4.4		3.8
CPI		3.1	3.5		2.6
CPI-ATE		3.1	3.2		2.6
Crude oil price, USD per barrel ()		68	91		80
Three-month money market interest (rate) 3		4.4	4.4		4.4
Import-weighted krone exchange rate 4		-0.6	-4.3		-0.4
Global economy5
GDP trading partners		2.0	1.7		1.7
CPI trading partners		2.1	2.3		2.1

¹ Interim national accounting figures in current prices. Growth rates from this level are in volume terms.

² Excluding changes in inventories.

³ Corresponds to the forecast for the money market interest rate in Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy Report 1/26.  

⁴ Positive figures indicate a weaker NOK.

⁵ Norway’s 10 most important trading partners, weighted by their respective shares of Norwegian exports of goods excluding oil and gas and Norwegian imports of goods excluding ships, oil platforms, and crude oil.  In previous forecasts Norway’s 25 most important trading partners were used in constructing of weights.

Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF, Eurostat, Norges Bank, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Reuters, Macrobond and the Ministry of Finance.

Table 2 Fiscal policy in 2025, adopted budget for 2025 and revised national budget for 2026¹

Billion NOK	2025	Adopted budget for 2026	Revised budget for 2026
Spending from the Government Pension Fund Global, per cent2	2.6	2.8	2.7
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion, fixed 2026 prices	531.0	584.0	579.0
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of trend GDP for mainland Norway	11.6	13.2*	12.6
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, per cent of trend GDP for mainland Norway. Change from previous year (fiscal impulse)3	1.8	0.6	0.9
Impact of the 2026 budget programme on GDP for mainland Norway as estimated by macroeconomic models4			0-0.1

 ¹ Figures for 2026 are projections. Percentage change from previous year unless otherwise stated.

² Structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of the fund capital in the Government Pension Fund Global at the beginning of the year

³ Change from previous year in percentage points.

⁴  Based on calculations using the KVARTS and NORA macro models which, among other things, take into account that different expenditures and revenues have different effects on activity in the economy. The calculations are based on all public administration, i.e., central and local government administration.

* Since the adopted budget, Statistics Norway has published upward revisions of GDP for mainland Norway. The structural deficit, measured as a percentage of trend GDP in the adopted budget, is therefore not directly comparable with the figures for 2025 and the revised budget.

Source: Ministry of Finance.

Table 3 Key figures in the National Budget and the Government Pension Fund Global in BNOK

	Accounts		Estimate
	2024	2025	2026
Total revenue	2 328.8	2 290.1	2 445.4
1   Revenue from petroleum activities	750.7	692.7	721.1
1.1   Ordinary and special taxes	420.3	382.9	397.4
1.2   Other petroleum revenue	330.3	309.8	323.7
2   Revenues not related to petroleum activities	1 573.1	1 597.4	1 724.3
2.1   Ordinary and special taxes from mainland Norway	1 397.8	1 416.4	1 566.3
2.2   Other revenues	175.3	181.0	158.0
Total expenditure	1 953.3	2 101.8	2 226.2
1   Expenses for petroleum activities	48.5	28.7	35.5
2   Expenses not related to petroleum activities	1 904.8	2 073.1	2 190.7
Profit in the National Budget before transferral to the Government Pension Fund Global	370.5	188.3	219.1
-    Net cash flow from petroleum activities	702.2	664.0	685.6
=   Non-oil profit	-331.7	-475.7	-466.4
+   Transferred from the Government Pension Fund Global	346.5	480.2	466.4
=   Profit in the National Budget	14.7	4.5	0.0
+   Net allocations in the Government Pension Fund Global	355.7	183.8	219.1
+   Interest and dividend income, etc., in the Government Pension Fund Global 1	422.1	462.5	447.8
-    Transfer from the Government Pension Fund Norway	0.0	11.7	12.3
=   Total profit in the National Budget and Government Pension Fund 1	792.6	639.1	654.6
Memo:
Interest and dividend income, etc., in the Government Pension Fund Global	402.8	444.4	428.4
Market value of the Government Pension Fund Global 2	15 761	19 735	21 258
Market value of the Government Pension Fund 2	16 115	20 116	21 675
Non-oil fiscal deficit	331.7	475.5	466.4
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, fixed 2026 prices	445.7	531.0	579.0
Structural non-oil fiscal deficit	412.3	510.6	579.0
Percentage of mainland Norway’s trend GDP	9.9	11.6	12.6
Percentage of the Government Pension Fund Global	2.6	2.6	2.7
Change from previous year as percentage points (fiscal impulse)	0.8	1.8	0.9
Real underlying increase in expenditure, percentage	3.1	4.1	2.1

¹ Does not include exchange gains or losses.

² At the beginning of the year.

Source: Ministry of Finance