Key messages

The decline in birth rates in Norway over the past 15 years has been particularly pronounced among young adults in their twenties. The average age at first birth has increased from 28 to 30 for women and from 31 to 32 for men. Survey evidence suggests that the age at which most people would like to have their first child is significantly lower than this. An increasing share also end up having fewer children than they originally desired.

The committee highlights five societal developments that have contributed to falling birth rates:

1. Socioeconomic marginalisation: Individuals with low levels of education, poor health, low income, and weak attachment to the labour market are increasingly likely to remain childless.
2. Delayed family formation: Young adults spend more time completing their education, gaining a foothold in the labour market, establishing stable relationships, and securing familyfriendly housing, and therefore have children later. At the same time, more effective contraception results in fewer unplanned pregnancies.
3. Norms and competing life projects: Changing norms and priorities among young couples–combined with a perception of increasing demands associated with parenting–may contribute to couples postponing childbearing and having fewer children.
4. Time constraints among parents of young children: The combination of paid work and timeintensive parenting leaves little time to spare, which may lead more people to delay parenthood and to opt for smaller families.
5. A vulnerable start for new parents: Higher ages at childbirth, a growing prevalence of physical and mental health problems among those giving birth, and increased strain on the healthcare services can lead to negative experiences during pregnancy and delivery. This may give new families a more difficult start and reduce the desire to have additional children.

An individual’s decision to have children has consequences for society as a whole: Very low birth rates and large fluctuations in cohort sizes can have a range of negative effects. In the short term—within the span of a single demographic generation—fewer children imply lower public expenditure, as fewer will attend childcare and school. However, small cohorts reduce the basis for services offered to children and young people, which may lead to fewer options for extracurricular activities and educational opportunities in local communities. At the same time, population ageing generates strong and lasting growth in the demand for health and care services. Together, these developments place municipalities and other public institutions under significant pressure to adapt. Institutions must shift from supporting families with children to caring for older people, which may result in today’s institutional support for families becoming more fragmented. To avoid these negative consequences, it can be justified to facilitate childbearing for those who wish to have children. For society as a whole, and when assessed over a long time horizon, there may be substantial benefits from policies that support the formation of new generations and thereby stable cohort sizes. The committee considers it an important objective of Norwegian family policy that people are able to realise their childbearing intentions.

Having children is a choice that affects all aspects of life. Institutional support for (prospective) parents therefore spans many policy areas. The committee’s main proposals are as follows:

1. Reducing social and economic exclusion by preventing health problems, supporting completion of upper secondary education, and promoting inclusion in the labour market can help lower childlessness, particularly among men.

2. A faster transition into adulthood makes it easier to have children at a younger age. Possible measures include a smoother transition between compulsory military service and education, and making vocational education more attractive and accessible. Shortening the compulsory school pathway could also contribute in the same direction.

3. Increased financial support for parents under the age of 30 would make it easier for those who wish to have children early to do so (eleven of twelve committee members propose this).

4. Improving the housing market for families with children by increasing housing supply and considering measures to curb housing price growth, such as taxation of homeownership. Earlier entry into the housing market makes it easier to have children earlier in life. Rapid growth in housing prices relative to incomes may, over time, become a barrier for individuals with low incomes who do not receive financial assistance from their parents when purchasing a home.

5. Improved health services for future and new parents can support a smoother transition into parenthood and strengthen the desire to have additional children. Knowledge about fecundity (the ability to conceive) may contribute to a lower age at first birth, and for some, assisted reproduction is a prerequisite for having children.

6. An efficient and flexible transition from parental benefit to the start of kindergarten can both reduce the number of unwanted unpaid leave periods and provide more family time during the toddler years for those who want it. The committee proposes that all children be offered a kindergarten place from the age of one, while also allowing parents up to 70 weeks of parental benefits at 70 percent compensation.

7. A better balance between working time and family time among parents with young children may make it easier to have more than two children. Eleven of twelve committee members propose a trial scheme with reduced working hours for parents of young children. The committee as a whole proposes the following concrete measures: reviewing the parental leave regulations and improving information about parents’ rights in working life, strengthening activity programmes in afterschool programmes (SFO), and assessing the possibility of providing practical help in the home.