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Good morning!

When I come here, looking at Munch’s famous works, I'm thinking – imagine if this was our bright, new rule-based world order! Then, we should all be inspired. Well, friends, thank you to the Norwegian Atlantic Committee (DNAK) for convening us again. Thank you for this Security Conference. There is a security conference in Warsaw, in Munich, and other places, and we need to connect and communicate and develop our thinking, in these times when things really are changing.

So, what is ‘the new normal’? ‘The new normal’ is not a fixed square thing. It is, on the one hand, not complete unpredictability either. We have to grasp – what is the landscape around us? And how are we to deal with it? But there is, as my Canadian colleague shared with us some days ago in Davos; we live through ‘a rupture’. – And history is also a long row of ruptures. History’s only permanent thing is change. It's just that now the changes come at a pace which is challenging – to our fundamental values.

Ukraine

So, on some components of that rupture – and I think you (Kate Hansen Bundt) mentioned some of them, happening, but I will start with the point that we have the war on Ukraine. The fact that we have a full-scale military war in Europe still going on, into a new year this month – with terrible consequences for the people affected and with broad consequences far beyond.

I met a high representative from the Republic of Korea last week who could testify to what the war in Ukraine meant for security on the Korean Peninsula – in terms of what does it really mean when North Korean soldiers fight in Ukraine, and what is Russia delivering back to North Korea, just as one illustration.

So, this is, of course, the big challenge. Norway is neighboring Russia. Our neighbor is waging a full-scale war on another neighbor. Of course, it has profound implications for our whole outlook.

United States

Then there is the United States, as you are saying, who are ‘weaponizing’ economic policy. Also, the big major economic powers are in that realm. They are using value chains as strong means of promoting their own interests, be it China, doing it with large subsidies, pushing industries not only to promote their goods, but also to penetrate markets and sometimes destabilize them.

The fact that we have experienced from our ally the reintroduction of tariffs, which runs counter to what we have experienced since the late 1940s of tariffs being built down. So, one thing is building the tariffs up as a means of rebalancing trade. I think most economists will question, you know, in the big scheme, whether that really works.

But what we experienced two weeks ago, when the U.S. used tariffs against allies, as a political means to force through their perspective on Greenland, which in itself – wanting to grab land from another land inside an alliance – illustrates how this is changing. I could go on because there are many such examples.

World order breaking down?

The world order is not breaking down completely, as some kind of, you know, back to ‘the rebels’. And there are also good reasons – that part of the world order should change, I would say. If you come from the Global South, how can you explain that you have a U.N. Security Council composed of the members who came victorious out of the Second World War? – If you are India, the world's most populous country, and say that that is right. Africa is not represented. Latin America is not represented. So, we also have to think, from the West, with our values, focus on the fact that there also need to be change.

And I share the view of my Finnish colleague, the President of Finland, who says that, you know, in the perspective of value-based pragmatism, we in the West have to listen to the Global South and their legitimate concerns, be it on trade, be it on influence, be it on participation. And this is our moment where we have to be much more attentive to all this, I believe.

Fundamental values

So, where is Norway in this shifting environment? Of course, there is a long story to be told. For me – and I can also use this expression of being a value-based pragmatist – we have to protect the values that we really cherish about democracy and freedom and human rights and rules where they apply. And they apply in many contexts.

The Director General of the World Trade Organization was here in Oslo three weeks ago, saying that 80% of world trade happens inside the rules of the WTO. – And right now, my ambassador to the WTO, together with his colleague from Singapore, are leading the process inside WTO to adapt rules also to reflect a world which looks differently from what it was five, 10, 15, 20 years ago. We have to be part of that.

Our geography

But coming back to Norway, there's one thing that does not change, and that is our geography. And for me, geography is a good point of departure to define what are our interests, what is our vulnerability, what is our opportunity.

And the fact that Norway has the world's second largest coastline matters. The fact that we have seven times more economic zone and seabed than land matters. The fact that we provide one-third of Europe's gas and almost 40% of gas to the U.K., and we are an important part of Polish’ independence on gas, all that matters.

The fact that we have critical raw materials that are important to the value chains – which now have to be defended against the attacks from states – matters. The fact that we are developing space activities from the Northern part of Norway because we are there, up north, matters.

And I really appreciate that the high representative, Kaja Kallas, my friend, is going up to Tromsø today to take part in the Arctic Frontiers conference. That is highly valued.

Norway, Europe, economic security and partnerships

So how do we respond to this world changing? Two points: First of all, we have to deepen and anchor our European participation. And, my friends, this is not going to be an open door to the big questions that many of you ponder on, on EU membership. That is not the issue today. The issue today is to take – as a point of departure – where we stand, what we have, which is really a rule-based trade in Europe. We have 80% of our trade going to the EU and the United Kingdom. And this is, of course, strategically, critically important in these times, where the value chains are so important to protect, our independence.

So, I want to safeguard the European Economic Area. I want to expand the perspective of that cooperation – by also including these new strategic areas which really are not primarily about rules and directives – because the directives; you know how that works in the EEA; we take the bulk of them – but it is about identifying what economic security means in our times. What does it mean and how does it affect our value chains? And how will we cooperate with Europe to be part of the European – what shall I say – the defense and the promotion of its independence, when we are being challenged by these powers who now, without scruples, are using their power to keep Europe down.

Europe will always be a mix of 27, 30, 35, you choose. And that is, of course, I would say an immense dimension of why I love Europe, because it is diversity. But this is, of course, also fragility and a certain weakness, because you stand up against these major powers who challenge you. Norway has to be a part of this.

That is why we have concluded strategic partnership on security last year. That is why our military industry is participating in the programs being developed by Europe. – Because, historically, we find that our military industry has their reasons why they are composed as they are. They matter to Europe's security. They matter to Ukraine. They matter to the protection of Ukrainian cities as we speak, because the air defense happens to be something we are good at, and so on. So, my first reply is that strategic anchor in Europe that we have to spend time on, and that I will really focus on that – and in what lies ahead for us.

The U.S. and the collective security

Then, secondly, if we focus on pragmatism and geography, I think there is an enduring U.S. dimension to our security, which we have to analyze and understand. And some of you have heard me say this before, but I'll mention it again because I think it is the reality that you alluded to, Kate.

When I met the U.S. President for the first time, I said to him, looked him in the eyes and said that it is important for a Norwegian Prime Minister to see a U.S. President in the eyes and say; ‘100 kilometers from my border is the world's largest nuclear arsenal. And it is not directed against me, Mr. President, but against you. And it makes a difference that we monitor those submarines. We know when they leave port. We know when they test their new weapon systems. And we share it with you and we collaborate on monitoring all that’.

And that is why I just have to say that it rings completely false when the American President stands in Davos saying that we have given everything to NATO and NATO gives us nothing in return. It is wrong. It is plain wrong. And I think a big part of the U.S. knows that. Because it matters every day, every hour.

The collective security is not a charity. It is made out of self-interest. So, for Norway's security on this hard-nosed geographic reality, the following matters: We will strengthen our own defense, which means that in the coming years we will have to explain to many sectors of Norwegian society ‘there will be less more in your area’, because there has to be more strengthening of our defense, rebuilding our naval defense, and other sectors of our defense. That is a collective domestic security obligation.

Allies

We will rely on allies and alliances. So, the NATO alliance, which I think is in really good focus on the north, and we have modernized the regional plans, and all five Nordic countries, members of NATO, all five under the joint command in Norfolk. We know how to do the collective collaboration on defense in the north. A month from now, we will have 25,000 troops exercising in Northern Norway, Northern Finland. And the two largest delegations there are the French and the U.S.; 4,000-5,000 troops each.

Again, this is not charity. This is out of mutual interest. We will preserve that. We will look after that. And we will remind our American partners about it. And if there's one trait over this last year, when the MAGA movement is moving this way, if anything, that collaboration in the north has become deeper and closer, again, because I think, deep down, it really matters.

Europe must do more on security

But this is not enough for our security. Of course, the European dimension of this part of our security is also vital. And that is also why we have a clear strategy from the Norwegian government to do our version of what it means that Europe has to step up. It is logical – and it is not because of Trump. I mean, he put pressure on it. But this has been the theme of U.S. presidents in my lifetime, that Europe has to do more, has to pay for more.

And we have to do more, wisely. We should not do more one after one after one, but we have to do it in a coordinated way with capabilities so we don't all buy the same things. You know, Norway, Sweden and Finland have 250 fighter jets all together. And they will now exercise and work in a much more integrated way, and they are a formidable force of deterrence.

So, we will do our part in spending on defense. We will aim to spend wisely on defense so it really fits into these regional plans. – But then, we will do more. We will deepen strategically our cooperation with the leading EU partners and with the United Kingdom. Don't forget, friends, EU is critical for our security. But EU member states represent 20% of NATO's military capacity. 80% is non-EU – the U.S., Canada, Turkey, U.K., Norway.

So, when we buy our frigates from the U.K., it is more than just a purchase. This is about integration of our naval defenses. In crisis, basically, these will be very, very closely working together. So, when we buy our submarines from Germany and our tanks from Germany, it is also a deep industrial integration in security terms with Germany. And when we conclude agreements on security and partnership with France and Poland, we have two other major northern European partners, partly in their outlook in our pattern of agreements. And when we deepen, as ex-Prime Minister Kallas and now the High Representative knows, the Joint Expeditionary Force between the Nordics, Baltics, the U.K. and Netherlands, and we exercise together, it is because we are developing a Northern European dimension of security.

And this has to be built on further. For me, this is what I would call kind of Euro-NATO. It has to happen inside NATO, in my view, because NATO has the command structure, has the experience, has the appearance of the Americans. But we have to take more responsibility, both in the way we invest, in the way we plan, in the way we purchase, but also in the way we structure.

So, this is, for me, a take on what may be the kind of the new normal in the world that is changing as it is. And I think we have values to defend, which I think there are millions out there in the world aspiring to those values. We should not be shy about them. And with that point of departure, I think we should also have confidence and also some degree of optimism that those values can prevail. Now I'm 20 seconds over time. Thank you so much for your attention.

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