Revised National Budget

Key figures in the Revised National Budget 2022

To secure equal access to information that might be market sensitive, the Ministry of Finance publishes selected key figures prior to launching the Revised National Budget at 10:45 a.m. More detailed estimates will be published with the Revised Budget.

The Norwegian economy is experiencing an upturn despite turbulent externalities. Economic growth is strong and unemployment is low. Businesses are reporting increasing labour shortages, and wage and price inflation are picking up.

Mainland Norway GDP is forecast to grow by 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2.3 percent in 2023 – higher than the average annual rate for the past 10 years. Registered unemployment has not been lower since before the 2008 financial crisis, and is expected to remain low going forward.

Extraordinary allocations totalling almost NOK 60 billion were proposed and approved earlier this year. This budget contains sizable compensatory measures, and revised estimates are also expected to help improve the budget balance. Petroleum revenue spending is expected to total NOK 352.2 billion in 2022, approximately NOK 30 billion lower than envisaged before the Revised Budget but still approximately NOK 30 billion higher than forecast in last autumn’s Amendment to the 2022 Fiscal Budget Proposal. Measured as a proportion of Mainland Norway economic value creation, petroleum expenditure is expected to be 0.5 percent lower in 2022 than in 2021. The transfer from the Government Pension Fund Global is estimated at 2.9 percent of the Fund’s value at the start of the year.

Table: Selected key figures in the Revised National Budget 20221

 

2021

2022

Mainland Norway gross domestic product

4.2

3.6

Employment, persons

1.2

3.0

Unemployment rate, LFS (level)

4.4

3.3

Unemployment rate, registered (level)

3.1

1.8

Structural non-oil fiscal deficit, NOK billion

354.4

352.2

Fiscal impulse2

-0.6

-0.5

Transfer from the GPFG3

3.2

2.9

1 Percentage volume change from previous year, unless otherwise stated.

2 Structural non-oil fiscal deficit as a percentage of Mainland Norway trend  GDP. Change from previous year in percentage points.

3 Structural non-oil deficit as a percentage of the capital in the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) at the beginning of the year. 

Sources: Statistics Norway and Ministry of Finance.